Abstract

Objective

To evaluate the global economic impacts of adopting gene-edited pigs resistant to porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) on pork markets and producer profitability.

Methods

A model linking hog supply to consumer pork demand in 6 global regions, Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, the US, and the rest of the world, was constructed and parametrized using pork production and trade statistics, published supply and demand elasticities, PRRS prevalence rates, and productivity metrics by PRRS health status. The model projects changes in pork prices, production, trade, and producer profits.

Key Findings

• PRRS-resistant pig introduction to the U.S. swine herd will increase the supply of market hogs​
• Decrease in market hog prices is offset by an even larger decrease in marginal costs, increasing profit per head​
• As a result of the changing production and pork prices, U.S. exports increase​
• More pigs and pork produced at a positive margin increased U.S. producer profitability
• The phased-in productivity gains over multiple years enables time for the packing sector to adapt
• If adoption of PRRS-resistant pigs slightly impacts domestic consumer demand, adoption remains a net-positive for U.S. profitability​
• If other proteins implement novel genetic innovations to increase productivity in the future but pork does not, pork loses share-of-the-plate and industry profitability declines​

Conclusions

The adoption of PRRS-resistant pigs is likely to significantly increase productivity, which translates into market impacts that are substantial and likely positive for the adopting producers, assuming there is no significant demand reduction or exorbitant increase in the cost of swine genetics.

Clinical Relevance

Pork producers who adopt PRRS-resistant pigs experience higher productivity and lower veterinary costs.

To hear Dr. Jayson Lusk discuss his research and findings in more detail, click here.